Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Podcast with Mark Zandi

Published by: Moody’s Inside Economics Podcast: #167 - Making Sense of the Jobs #

In a rare Saturday morning taping of the podcast, Dante and Matt join Mark (where’s Cris and Marisa?) to disentangle the considerable crosscurrents in the May jobs report. Surging immigration is complicating interpretation of the numbers. Next week’s all-important report on consumer price inflation was also the fodder of discussion, as was Mark’s Washington Post op-ed arguing the Fed should cut rates.

Our overall summary:

US Job availability is slowing. The job market is fine if you are already in it. If not, it is a struggle. Firms are not hiring at the same level as they were. For those who want a better job, it will soon be a situation where it's not there waiting for you, but you will have to compete for it.  Residents will need to train, get experience, and be competitive in a tighter job market.  

As for the Northwest Indiana region, there were over 55,000 open positions, suggesting a continued trend for the region to be lagging in labor force participation with lower-skilled, legacy, and hourly positions. While mid-skill positions are promised for the future, will the workforce be ready for those positions if the available positions are not filled? Thus, will mid and higher-skilled positions be filled by a migrating workforce willing to relocate for more prosperous positions? Regardless, the continued housing shortage will deter the ability to meet employer demand at all job levels. In turn, without a skilled, engaged, and prosperous workforce, housing will continue to not be affordable.